The black swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's phenomenal international bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty. What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide...I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person. (Will Self, Independent on Sunday). He leaps like some superhero of the mind. (Boyd Tonkin, Independent). Funny, quirky and thought-provoking...confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot. (John Cornwell, Sunday Times).

Idiosyncratically brilliant. (Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph). Great fun...brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling. (Stephen J.